Yahoo! Somebody In The MSM Finally Got a Political Clue.
They finally figured it out at the New York Times. We have been putting the voters in Democratic districts on the rolls in record numbers and it just "might make the difference". Check out my earlier post on it here.
The numbers in Ohio:
Franklin County (Columbus): Over 800,000 total voters, up from 650,000 in 2000 and very close to total voting population registration. (!)
103 solidly Republican Ohio ZIP codes, mostly rural and suburban: 35,000 new registrations, up from 28,000 new registrations in 2000.
63 solidly Democratic Ohio ZIP codes, in Columbus, Cleveland, Dayton, and Youngstown: 63,000 new registrations, up from 17,000 in 2000.
And down in Florida:
150 solidly Republican ZIP codes: 96,000 up from 86,000 in 2000.
110 solidly Democratic ZIP codes: 125,000 up from 77,000 in 2000.
There is also now a sensible description, beyond stale press releases, of what the corresponding Republican strategy consists of:
"A spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee, Christine Iverson, declined to comment on The Times's findings and said she did not believe Republicans were lagging in the registration battle. "We're very confident that we have a ground game that's as good as the Democrats', and better," she said....
"But Republican officials say they remain confident that their voters will prove easier to get to the polls. "It would scare me if we weren't doing our own thing," said Joanne Davidson, the regional chairwoman of the Bush campaign in four Midwestern states including Ohio, of the wave of new Democrats. "We know how to turn out voters."....
"It's not easy work, but we go door to door in strong Republican precincts, making sure everyone is registered," said Chris McNulty, the state party chairman....
"But intensive voter contact and turnout are exactly what the Republicans believe they do best. Their plan calls for the same kind of sophisticated targeting, and a last-minute push for turnout called a 72-hour strategy, the plan Republicans used in 2002 to overwhelm incumbent Democrats like former Senator Max Cleland in Georgia."
The Bottom Line:
"The analysis by The New York Times of county-by-county data shows that in Democratic areas of Ohio - primarily low-income and minority neighborhoods - new registrations since January have risen 250 percent over the same period in 2000. In comparison, new registrations have increased just 25 percent in Republican areas. A similar pattern is apparent in Florida: in the strongest Democratic areas, the pace of new registration is 60 percent higher than in 2000, while it has risen just 12 percent in the heaviest Republican areas."
So. The Republicans are going to wait until 72 hours before the election to call all the voters in their favored districts to win this election.
I see.
UPDATE: Linked to James Joyner's "Beltway Traffic Jam". Other good news on this topic is at Gropinator, New Donkey, and progressive muslim thoughts. And bad news on the Republican response is on Daily Kos, Talking Points Memo, Eschaton, Past Peak, Fables of the Reconstruction, Tina's Shark Tank.
The numbers in Ohio:
Franklin County (Columbus): Over 800,000 total voters, up from 650,000 in 2000 and very close to total voting population registration. (!)
103 solidly Republican Ohio ZIP codes, mostly rural and suburban: 35,000 new registrations, up from 28,000 new registrations in 2000.
63 solidly Democratic Ohio ZIP codes, in Columbus, Cleveland, Dayton, and Youngstown: 63,000 new registrations, up from 17,000 in 2000.
And down in Florida:
150 solidly Republican ZIP codes: 96,000 up from 86,000 in 2000.
110 solidly Democratic ZIP codes: 125,000 up from 77,000 in 2000.
There is also now a sensible description, beyond stale press releases, of what the corresponding Republican strategy consists of:
"A spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee, Christine Iverson, declined to comment on The Times's findings and said she did not believe Republicans were lagging in the registration battle. "We're very confident that we have a ground game that's as good as the Democrats', and better," she said....
"But Republican officials say they remain confident that their voters will prove easier to get to the polls. "It would scare me if we weren't doing our own thing," said Joanne Davidson, the regional chairwoman of the Bush campaign in four Midwestern states including Ohio, of the wave of new Democrats. "We know how to turn out voters."....
"It's not easy work, but we go door to door in strong Republican precincts, making sure everyone is registered," said Chris McNulty, the state party chairman....
"But intensive voter contact and turnout are exactly what the Republicans believe they do best. Their plan calls for the same kind of sophisticated targeting, and a last-minute push for turnout called a 72-hour strategy, the plan Republicans used in 2002 to overwhelm incumbent Democrats like former Senator Max Cleland in Georgia."
The Bottom Line:
"The analysis by The New York Times of county-by-county data shows that in Democratic areas of Ohio - primarily low-income and minority neighborhoods - new registrations since January have risen 250 percent over the same period in 2000. In comparison, new registrations have increased just 25 percent in Republican areas. A similar pattern is apparent in Florida: in the strongest Democratic areas, the pace of new registration is 60 percent higher than in 2000, while it has risen just 12 percent in the heaviest Republican areas."
So. The Republicans are going to wait until 72 hours before the election to call all the voters in their favored districts to win this election.
I see.
UPDATE: Linked to James Joyner's "Beltway Traffic Jam". Other good news on this topic is at Gropinator, New Donkey, and progressive muslim thoughts. And bad news on the Republican response is on Daily Kos, Talking Points Memo, Eschaton, Past Peak, Fables of the Reconstruction, Tina's Shark Tank.
posted by Joseph Marshall | 1:26 PM
5 Comments:
Keep it up! It looks like Kerry will need both Ohio and Florida to win.
Off topic: Joseph, I want to compliment you on your comment on Brad DeLong's blog on his post on "Minds". You wrote very nearly what I thought. If you'd like to see what I wrote, look here.
TO: Joseph Marshall
RE: The Republican Plans
"So. The Republicans are going to wait until 72 hours before the election to call all the voters in their favored districts to win this election." -- Joseph Marshall
I'm not so sure about that. But then again, I'm not in Ohio or Florida.
I will comment that I'm seeing indications that churches are doing voter registration after their Sunday services. The ministers, or at least the ones I'm familiar with, are careful to not counsel or advise people who or what to vote for, but they are getting them primed to vote their conscience and equipping them to do the same, i.e., voter registration.
Regards,
Chuck(le)
As far as I can see, Republicans seem to be satisfied with the numbers they have already registered. They had better be. In my state registration ends in one week, I'm sure your state is comparable, and I don't think they are going to gain that many more new voters in so short a time.
The strategy, insofar as they have one, seems to be the same as 2002--blitz the safe wards and the past registered Republican voter roll lists with telephone calls starting 72 hours before polling to try to get maximum turnout. It worked well when we wern't really trying that hard. The strategy will be really put to the test this time, because our last minunte phone banks will be doing exactly the same thing.
Very cool. I always enjoy the interviews. Thanks for having this blog
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